Research

Working Papers:

Green Trade Policies in Africa and Implications for Climate Change Mitigation: A cross-country analysis

• Uses linear local projections to measure the effects of green trade on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Finds that increasing green trade decreases the harmful effect on the environment with decreases in ecological footprint by 3-10\%, insignificant long-term effects on net CO2 emissions embedded in trade, and decreases in PM2.5 by about 2-4%

• IMF Working Paper Link

Inflation, Growth, and Poverty: New Evidence on Nonlinearities from Recent Global Data

• Uses a panel smooth transition regression to estimate nonlinearity between inflation, growth, and poverty

• Using recent data, identifies an inflation rate threshold on growth at about 7%, much lower than previously estimated

• Identifies nonlinearity between inflation and poverty where adverse effects on poverty are larger at lower levels of inflation

• Under review at the Journal of Economic Inequality

Geopolitical Risk and Disaggregated Inflation: A Comparative Analysis of Egypt and Tunisia

• Estimates how global and domestic political risk affect inflation in Egypt and Tunisia using a Bayesian VAR framework.

• Shows that geopolitical risk shocks are inflationary in both countries with stronger and more persistent effects in Egypt.

• Shows that domestic political risk have deflationary effects in Tunisia, especially around the Arab Spring period.

• Uses disaggregated CPI data to show that risk shocks affect sectors differently

• Uses exchange rate and money supply data to analyze the transmission effects of government policy.

• Under review at the Journal of Comparative Economics

Estimating the Effects of Political Risk on Remittances

• Estimates the effects of geopolitical and country-specific political risk on remittances using linear local projections

• Finds that geopolitical risk decreases net remittance flows by 0.15% of GDP and country-specific political risk increases net remittance flows by 0.15% of GDP in the long-term

The Effect of CBDC News on Bank Returns

• This paper measures the effects of Central Bank Digital Currency news announcements by major US Government Organizations (FED, White, House, Treasury, Congress) on bank abnormal returns

•  It uses various event study methods including the Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model

• It finds that the market perceives CBDC as having a negative impact on banks through bank disintermediation

Introduction to Digital Currencies: A Macroeconomic Experiment

• This experiment seeks to understand the interactions of consumers when faced with three different currency options: a physical, fiat currency, a private, digital currency, and a Central Bank Digital Currency. It tests which treatments can change the incentives of participants to choose one currency over another in different inflationary environments.

• The pilot was completed in April 2024 using the Behavioral Economic and Situational Testing Lab at West Virginia University.

New Keynesian Economics in an Open Economy: A Literature Review

• This is a literature review expanding on New Keynesian Theory in an open economy environment

Expanding Growth Models to Include Human Capital: A Literature Review

• This is a chronological literature review incorporating human capital into popular macroeconomic growth models